Here Comes The Guineas

I am so proud that two of my ToF horse have made it to the 2,000 Guineas this year. It promises to be a great race with New Approach firmly at the head of the betting with many believing he should be the easy winner. Of course I beg to differ.

Ibn Khaldun : By a miler out of a miler, he is perfectly bred for the Guineas. His dam Gossamer in fact won the Irish 1,000 Guineas in 2002. Gossamer is also a full sister to Barathea, who won the Irish 2,000 Guineas and was second to Zafonic in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in 1993. Ibn Khaldun has nothing but improved over his two-year-old season and the noises coming out of the Godolphin camp are positive. If he kept up the progression at the same rate as through last year, he will be right up there and should be capable of winning. He is likely to be 3rd in the betting behind New Approach and Raven's Pass. I definitely feel he is a better horse than Raven's Pass. Whether he will be able to beat horse-of-the-moment New Approach, we will find out tomorrow. He is trading at 4/1 to 9/2 at the moment. I put some money on him last October at 25/1. Fingers crossed! He could be a superstar...

My other runner is Alfathaa. He has recovered from his foot problem and will likely take his place in the starting stalls tomorrow. He is a bit of an enigma. I am not quite sure what to expect of him. He ran well enough last year as two-year-old and was not far behind the leading two-year-old colts. He won a maiden by five lengths over a mile and finished a creditable fifth in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge (G2) behind City Leader by only 1 1/4 lengths. His sire Nayef won G1s at 3, 4 and 5 and his dam was a listed winner at 4, so plenty of scope for improvement for him over the coming season. Whether he is ready for such a big task yet remains to be seen, but I hope he will run well. I have bet him each way for tomorrow, as I think he definitely capable of running a good race.

The field:
SC PP Horse (Jockey)
1. 4 Alfathaa (Richard Hills)
2. 8 Bahamian Kid (Ted Durcan)
3. 3 Dream Eater (Martin Dwyer)
4. 6 Fireside (Alan Munro)
5. 10 Henryhenavigator (Johnny Murtagh)
6. 9 Ibn Khaldun (Frankie Dettori)
7. 11 Moynahan (Richard Quinn)
8. 2 New Approach (Kevin Manning)
9. 5 Perfect Stride (Ryan Moore)
10. 1 Plan (Michael Kinane)
11. 13 Raven's Pass (Jimmy Fortune)
12. 15 Scintillo (Richard Hughes)
13. 12 Stimulation (Steve Drowne)
14. 14 Strike The Deal (Eddie Ahern)
15. 7 Stubbs Art (Seb Sanders)

My somewhat biased prediction for tomorrow:

1. Ibn Khaldun
2. New Approach
3. Alfathaa